[ronda]

Originally Posted by Switter

There are a lot of dynamics that go into the price of housing as of late, especially in Florida and the villages specifically since it is a retirement community and people move here for a very specific reason.

I don't think anyone can accurately predict where the housing market is going from here. It was ridiculously inflationary over the last handful of years and a correction is likely due at some point. To add to the uncertainty, the trend over the last couple decade towards viewing single-family housing as primarily an investment versus a place to live has made an even bigger mess of the market, i.e. housing crash of 2008 and the inflation over the last decade.

I probably overpaid a little for the place I bought a year and a half ago. However, I didn't overextend myself and in the end I'm satisfied with my purchase.

Good News for you: In TV it seems like the market over time only goes up. So you may have bought at the peak, but 5 years from now, you will be happy you pulled the trigger and paid what you did.

[J1ceasar]

Having lived in Central Florida 27 years I can tell you gas prices go up and down but like the title says duz it really matter?

Over the course of these years my house went from 300,000 to 100,000 to $300,000 etc.

If you look at it this way, seniors are always going to be retiring and wanting to get out of the cold weather so there will always be someone looking to buy your house down the road.

Prices in the village area are affected by the fact of how many houses , developer wants to put up as new, the mortgage rates and whether or not we have just had two hurricanes in the world the people don't want to come down to buy a house that month.

Your reality is affected by whether or not you think you will need to Sell within two or three years of buying due to health issues or moving back home to be with the grandkids.

People down here make a game of buying and selling just like Monopoly because I want to be in a new section or an old section or smaller or bigger or on the lake or by the golf course.

Over these years prices have general risen

[Switter]

Originally Posted by ronda

Good News for you: In TV it seems like the market over time only goes up. So you may have bought at the peak, but 5 years from now, you will be happy you pulled the trigger and paid what you did.

Yeah, I agree with you.

[DrMack]

Originally Posted by Switter

Yeah, I agree with you.

That isn’t what most of us in Dabney are saying. I have read what some realtors are posting and ask myself how they can even sleep at night with the positive spin they attempt to put on this market. The real estate market really bites right now in the villages.

[FredMitchell]

Prediction is hard, especially about the future.

[nn0wheremann]

Originally Posted by SoCalGal

Our lifestyle tour realtor said that price declines elsewhere in Florida don't significantly impact the home values in The Villages. What has been your experience?


Florida Housing Market Facing 'Widespread Price Declines' - Newsweek

What goes up will come down. The house next door was bought in 2005, and it’s price declined in the Great Recession in ‘08. The place sold in 2019 and the seller barely broke even. Very good recovery, by assessed valuation, since then.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

not another house pricing thread?

basically, house prices go up and down, the largest influencer is interest rates.
However all real estate is local, and so The Villages real estate market is local special to itself.

What affects the TV house prices the most?
the unique location, model and price of comparable new homes built by TV. . .

There are two types of TV buyers in general.
Those that want a preowned home.
Those that want a new home. . .

Those that want preowned, want certainty about present so that the future is less uncertain.
Those that buy new, have less need for certainty about the present, and can deal with the upgrades, the added costs and lack of immediate amenities in the newer areas . . .

Note that the developer has developed ways to sell new houses to keep the prices at the level of cost plus their profit margin, so new prices are relatively immune from resale up and down. However, when houses sell more slowly, the developer just sells fewer at a time, altering volume, not price.

Resales, all depends upon the buyers of the moment. . .
Freakonomics has a great analysis of realtor selling behavior. . . which can determine the final buyer. . .

good luck

[therefugee]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Both Zillow & Redfin estimate resale homes in The Villages have declined in Selling Price, between 12-15% since the peak 3 years ago. In a huge % of cases, Zillow won't provide a Zestimate of current value, because of a lack of sales data and the volatility of the market.

If your home selling price depreciated by 15% in the last 2.5 years, when you add in a 5% Broker's Commission to sell it, you just lost 20% of your value.

Edit: my original post was killed because it had a link to a graph

Hello all, we are closing on a home on Feb 3rd and find this interesting. Also, this is my first post!!!!!!!

As others have pointed out, the Villages is a its own bubble and not the real world. In 2008, it was largely immune from the housing crisis (my in-laws lived here then and still do). When talking about data on home prices, it is a little difficult because most homes get sold on TVs VLS and not the global MLS. VLS is TVs closed loop real estate arm and doesn't get reflected in the data pulled from MLS.

The chart depicts prices decreasing marginally since 2022. When taken in fuller context, the current prices are still above the 5-year trend line. So, for a two year period from 2020 to the peak in 2022 home prices soared 50% to $400k. I would argue they are still about 12% or so above a longer trend line. Anyhow, this marginal drawdown (I'd say normalization) on prices over the last 3 years is actually the market saying people got a lil bit crazy in 2022. Nothing systematically wrong.

Regards,

The Refugee

[Normal]

This site helps buyers know what the market is currently doing here in the Villages. It lists the selling price of every MLS home up to 1 day ago.

Pardon Our Interruption

If you ever use realtor.com, there is a drop down tab called “More”, just choose it and click “recently sold”.

[Moderator]

Topic of this thread is if price declines elsewhere in Florida significantly impact the home values in The Villages.

Off topic posts have been removed.

Please keep comments to the specific topic that was started. If you have another comment that is off topic, do not hijack the thread but please start a new one.

[Taltarzac725]

Location, location, location. The big three in real estate values. It really depends on where you are in the Villages. Close to shopping probably helps as well as close
to one or more of the town squares. And too close could be a problem as well.

[Bay Kid]

3 in my neighborhood just went under contract last week. Unless I am selling my value is perfect.

[ithos]

Originally Posted by ithos

I believe this to be true because the decrease in home values in Florida has been primarily due to the skyrocketing insurance rates caused by the recent hurricanes. Also many high rise condos near the beaches face mandatory remediation due to long term neglect.

Since The Villages has suffered very little damage from the weather, the rates of insurance have risen only modestly in line with the overall rate of inflation.

Very good point. I don't understand why these alarmists never distinguish between price declines between inland and coastal properties.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Craig Vernon

The top ten commandments in the training for a Village realtor are Thou shall not say anything negative about the TV. Also, it is a Jedi mind trick these are the homes you're looking for. These issues matter twice before you buy and when you sell. Enjoy the Middle.

Nobody has to trick anyone. The Villages are still beautiful and sought after. The last three homes in our small Village of 54 homes sold quickly. Bridgeport at Laurel Valley. You can look up what they sold for easily.

[ElDiabloJoe]

Originally Posted by ronda

Good News for you: In TV it seems like the market over time only goes up. So you may have bought at the peak, but 5 years from now, you will be happy you pulled the trigger and paid what you did.

I agree with this. By and large, no matter when you buy, sooner is better. If you bought in 1945, your house is phenomenally more valuable now than then. If you bought at the peak before the big crash in 2007, you would be better off now than then. Prices from the very peak seem like a steal today.

Kinda like stocks. Sure, there's some volatility and some up and down roller-coaster riding to be had, but in the long run, the sooner you buy the better off you will be.
Of course, if you're a market timer, then yes - you will likely lose more than you gain over time. That's just how it has all worked over the last century or so.