I believe this to be true because the decrease in home values in Florida has been primarily due to the skyrocketing insurance rates caused by the recent hurricanes. Also many high rise condos near the beaches face mandatory remediation due to long term neglect.

Since The Villages has suffered very little damage from the weather, the rates of insurance have risen only modestly in line with the overall rate of inflation.

There are a lot of dynamics that go into the price of housing as of late, especially in Florida and the villages specifically since it is a retirement community and people move here for a very specific reason.

I don't think anyone can accurately predict where the housing market is going from here. It was ridiculously inflationary over the last handful of years and a correction is likely due at some point. To add to the uncertainty, the trend over the last couple decade towards viewing single-family housing as primarily an investment versus a place to live has made an even bigger mess of the market, i.e. housing crash of 2008 and the inflation over the last decade.

I probably overpaid a little for the place I bought a year and a half ago. However, I didn't overextend myself and in the end I'm satisfied with my purchase.

As the article you attached says, “The typical value of a home in Florida went up by roughly 60 percent over the past five years, according to data from Reventure App. In November 2019, the typical value of a home in the Sunshine State was $243,000; in November 2024, it was $389,000. At the same time, mortgage rates went up from 3.7 percent to 6.8 percent.”

I’d say that in The Villages, home prices went up much more than was to be expected for a couple years. When mortgage rates climbed, homes kept selling, but they took longer to sell, though sales prices haven’t dropped much. They have mostly stayed steady or climbed slower. I know that when I bought my first house here almost five years ago, my mortgage was 3.5%. At 6.8%, I wouldn’t have been buying a home. Someone is buying, though.

My first home here, 1600 sq ft with pool and on a golf course, I sold two years later and made $85,000 on it (before fees, which were a lot). I bought a 1200 courtyard Villa and was able to pay cash. I’m glad I made that profit on the first house, but it was just luck, really. At present, I would lose money on my current house after my improvements. I don’t think careful people buying here are likely to have to sell for less than they paid, but their home values are not likely to shoot up in the next few years the way mine did. Living here is worth it, though.

No. My home owner's policy has doubled in 10 years, which equates to about 7% per year and is much higher than the rate of inflation.

For mine, the increase from 2022 to 2023 was much greater than inflation.

I wonder how much of this in, even in the villages with its relative safety from hurricanes, also has to do with the cost of repairs/replacement going up due to inflation. I'm pretty sure they factored those costs into the price of insurance.

Zillow is the largest real estate database in the United States. It does not rely on "MLS" for data, but tracks real estate transactions from multiple sources, including Registry of Deeds activity.

On the other hand, The Villages Realty produces its own data, which represents somewhere between 40%-60% of the pre-owned sales in TV.

Zillow, Trulia (owned by Zillow) & RedFin all show a significant decrease in pre-owned home prices in TV, over the 2.5 years.

Any real estate salesperson who's telling potential buyers that prices don't go down in TV or any other area, should lose their license.

What I have noticed in my area resale houses aren’t selling very quickly. I think this due to decline in market and competition with all new homes being built. Also some are way over priced which pretty much alienates them to just set there. I also see decline in activity people looking at houses that are for sale and even on open house days. Now go back year and half ago they rarely lasted over month.

The challenge a buyer faces when considering the purchase of a single-family home in the Villages is that (most buyers) do not have the time, facts, and experience to perform an informed financial analysis of the transaction or prospective purchase.

We as a group are at the mercy of many sources of information some objective, and others for the most part bias. However, as someone that bought, sold and built five homes as time goes on the priorities have shifted. I observed the number of new and pre-owned homes in TV and it's clear that the developer (VLS) is able to restrict supply of new homes to maintain their profit margin or flood the market if they want given their financial leverage. The remaining open market is likely a better indicator of the trend which by all counts (MLS) shows 2X the number of listings on a YOY basis, and the listing time to sale time has increased by at least 50%.

For many of us we are in or moving into retirement/a new chapter of life, I suggest that it might be better to consider a home purchase in TV as "consumption" of our accumulated assets, e.g., "decumulation". Are we really going to be here in 20-yr to resell that home? [sure, I understand that many folks move 2x-3x] However, I suggest we focus on our ability to buy based on economic situation and what that purchase would mean to us based on our wants, needs and desires as the buyer.

So what if the value goes up 20% in 5-yr, or drops down 20% in the same timeframe, we as the owner were able to consume and enjoy TV lifestyle, isn't that the point? When it's all said and done, we can't take it with us, and for those that remain the time spent with them in a place we enjoy might far exceed and economic benefit.

Zillow displays 636 MLS homes for sale inside the villages today. 6 months ago that number was 498 listings.Inventory is becoming massive in size and should drive prices down further. Not to mention the interest rates are up. That’s a 28% increase and doesn’t even include new construction or the areas south east of the Sumter line. There is some shadowing coming to play in the new areas as well.

The drop occurred in 2022
 

The drop some are talking about occurred in Spring/Summer of 2022. We had three courtyard villas in our neighborhood of 110 villas sell for over $500,000 between MAR 15 and JUN 2022!!!! All sales in our neighborhood since that time have been $230K, $287K, $290K, $305K, $312K, $340K, $342K, and $345K. Something quirky happened in Spring/Summer of 2022 that has flattened out since that time.

I would say that prices in TV probably will not drop to the level of those around the coast because of the issues of obtaining insurance and the increasing market that drives down prices. In TV there is always a decent number of homes available but the prices have not drop significantly.

Yes, prices for pre-owned homes HAS gone down in the past 8 months. Probably the first time in decades.

If your home was on the coast the insurance would be far greater. No talk of homeowners going "naked" around here.

Some homeowners are going '''naked''' without insurance in states where it'''s too expensive

In our experience prices have steadily increased over about 9 years. Some model homes may appreciate more than others, just as some neighborhoods may be more desirable. But that's true anywhere.