[Normal]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

[tophcfa]

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

[Normal]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Exactly. We are approaching good times.

[justjim]

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by justjim

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

[asianthree]

Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by asianthree

Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

You hit the nail on the head, there are lot more pre-owned Chevy's for sale than Bentley's. 4/3's on view lots are few and far between.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

You correctly defined a "healthy real estate market".

"The key local indicator is housing inventory, which is a measure of supply and demand. For a market to be considered healthy, the inventory should stand at 4-6 months. That means it would take between 4 and 6 months to sell every house on the market. "

4 Tips to Help You Read the Real Estate Market Like a Pro • Articles and Tips • Househappy(R)

[Bassdeer]

Good, moving down there spring of 2026, We are going to rent the first year just to make sure TV is for us.

[Overlook1]

It’s certainly a buyers market right now. But that is real estate. Some years buyer -some years seller market.

Houses that have sq ft and “updated” and priced appropriately are selling right now within 30-60 days.

People feel an updated house is still worth a higher price based on their lot view but those are sitting.

No one’s making a killing. Some houses are selling below what the current owner paid for the house a few years ago.

MLS will provide that info. But TV realty will not. TV realty tries to keep prices steady from year to year.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

You correctly defined a "healthy real estate market".

"The key local indicator is housing inventory, which is a measure of supply and demand. For a market to be considered healthy, the inventory should stand at 4-6 months. That means it would take between 4 and 6 months to sell every house on the market. "

4 Tips to Help You Read the Real Estate Market Like a Pro • Articles and Tips • Househappy(R)

I disagree, specifically as it pertains to The Villages pre-owned home market.

As people are fond of proclaiming, "The Village market is different than a traditional market". It is, in some ways.

While "Days of Inventory" is one of the most critical considerations when characterizing most any sort of market, consideration has to be given to the historical average vs current conditions. Not an absolute statement that a 4-6 months supply equals a healthy market.

The days of when 4-6 months supply equal a healthy market in a desirable area, are long gone. That might work in Peoria, but it doesn't in Metro Boston, NY, LA, or any other large metro market, that's seen huge appreciation in the post-Covid world. IMO, The Villages falls into that category. 4-6 months supply of inventory in TV, is a harbinger of rapidly declining prices.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Not sure of "homes will be more affordable" We had several (four) up for sale recently in our village of 54 homes. They all went quickly. One was taken off the market.(?) They all doubled or more their original value and our Village is either 12 or 13 years old. One sold for more than double at two million dollars.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by vintageogauge

You hit the nail on the head, there are lot more pre-owned Chevy's for sale than Bentley's. 4/3's on view lots are few and far between.

The Villages is a Chevy neighborhood, with perhaps a Pontiac or Buick thrown in.

You need to go a long way from The Villages, to find a "Bentley neighborhood" ... perhaps Naples?

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by Overlook1

It’s certainly a buyers market right now. But that is real estate. Some years buyer -some years seller market.

Houses that have sq ft and “updated” and priced appropriately are selling right now within 30-60 days.

People feel an updated house is still worth a higher price based on their lot view but those are sitting.

No one’s making a killing. Some houses are selling below what the current owner paid for the house a few years ago.

MLS will provide that info. But TV realty will not. TV realty tries to keep prices steady from year to year.

Sold and when, all public record available on county web site.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

They all doubled or more their original value and our Village is either 12 or 13 years old. One sold for more than double at two million dollars.

Exactly what would be expected after 12-13 years, based on the last 60 years of real estate.

Real estate has appreciated approximately 4.5% per year since the 60's. Compounded, that would mean a home would sell for about 1.8 times it's selling price of 12-13 years ago.