[AMB444]

Ok, all you smart people of TOTV.

I keep hearing from various sources that the real estate inventory is high right now and many properties are available.

What's your best guess or opinion on why this might be?

Thanks again for your responses!

It's impressive how much knowledge TOTV members have, so I do appreciate you all sharing your thoughts.

[Papa_lecki]

Young families are in starter homes with a 2% mortgage. They cant afford a bigger home with a 6.8% mortgage, which means the retires from up north can’t sell their homes to buy in The Villages.
Once rates come down 100 or 150 basis points, probably between July and September, the settlement agencies will be running 24x7.

[AMB444]

Originally Posted by Papa_lecki

Once rates come down 100 or 150 basis points, probably between July and September, the settlement agencies will be running 24x7.

Interesting, thank you!

So do you predict sales picking up by the end of the year?

[Papa_lecki]

Originally Posted by AMB444

Interesting, thank you!

So do you predict sales picking up by the end of the year?

Keep your eye on the FED meeting on 5/6 and 5/7. See what they do with rates.

[Stu from NYC]

High interest rates making it harder to afford mortgages

[AMB444]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

High interest rates making it harder to afford mortgages

Thanks!

Would it make sense to get an ARM and then refinance to standard mortgage when rates seem their lowest?

[CarlR33]

Originally Posted by AMB444

Thanks!

Would it make sense to get an ARM and then refinance to standard mortgage when rates seem their lowest?

All of your questions would be based on your personal situation. You can talk to a bank that may allow you to lower your fixed rate (within a time window) should they come down after taking on your mortgage. Standard rule of thumb is one percent lower you should review refinancing (like we all probably did back in the day of high rates).

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by AMB444

Thanks!

Would it make sense to get an ARM and then refinance to standard mortgage when rates seem their lowest?

Hard to answer as we know very little about you. Might want to talk to financial advisor.

Historical standards says rates on the low side for now, my crystal ball is mad at me

[vintageogauge]

Also, many who were ready to pull the trigger are now confused with the drop in the stock market and will most likely wait for it to get it's strength back.

[tophcfa]

Real estate values are always driven by supply and demand. Supply is being added very rapidly, buts that’s nothing new in the Villages. Demand for homes has slowed, increasing inventories. My take on slower demand includes the following:

Inflation - This is a very real and significant problem, cutting significantly into people’s disposal income and willingness to purchase a second home (which represents a significant percentage of Villages homes).

Decrease in home values up north - This makes it much more difficult, and risky, for those looking to flip their northern home into a Villages residence.

Floridas outrageously high property and casualty insurance (both homeowners and auto), property taxes, and the bond that comes with many Villages homes - It’s not just the price of homes that buyers must be able to afford, it’s the total package.

Economic uncertainties - These always exist, but seem unusually elevated these days, with new tariff driven inflation and recession fears and a very volatile (not in a good way) stock market. Not an environment conducive to making a significant investment in a home. I suspect many retirees equity in their investment portfolios have a high correlation to their willingness to purchase property.

Investor owned properties- The demand from this segment has slowed for several reasons, which all make a speculative real estate investment more risky than in prior years.

Hurricane burnout - it’s easy to forget about this factor this time of the year, but come mid October it’s fresh in people’s minds. This also effects the homeowners insurance market, which is a previously mentioned problem.

Reduced demand from those outside the USA - Many of these folks appear to be disenchanted and generally pi$$ed off with the USA these days.

Mortgage rates no longer at rock bottom like they were for many years - I suppose this is a deterrent to the segment of buyers not paying cash for their homes.

Just some random thoughts.

[AMB444]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Historical standards says rates on the low side for now, my crystal ball is mad at me

Haha. Excellent!

[AMB444]

Thank you to all. I just found this thread and this is exactly the info I was looking for.

Villages Home Inventory has Exploded

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Real estate values are always driven by supply and demand. Supply is being added very rapidly, buts that’s nothing new in the Villages. Demand for homes has slowed, increasing inventories. My take on slower demand includes the following:

Inflation - This is a very real and significant problem, cutting significantly into people’s disposal income and willingness to purchase a second home (which represents a significant percentage of Villages homes).

Decrease in home values up north - This makes it much more difficult, and risky, for those looking to flip their northern home into a Villages residence.

Floridas outrageously high property and casualty insurance (both homeowners and auto), property taxes, and the bond that comes with many Villages homes - It’s not just the price of homes that buyers must be able to afford, it’s the total package.

Economic uncertainties - These always exist, but seem unusually elevated these days, with new tariff driven inflation and recession fears and a very volatile (not in a good way) stock market. Not an environment conducive to making a significant investment in a home. I suspect many retirees equity in their investment portfolios have a high correlation to their willingness to purchase property.

Investor owned properties- The demand from this segment has slowed for several reasons, which all make a speculative real estate investment more risky than in prior years.

Hurricane burnout - it’s easy to forget about this factor this time of the year, but come mid October it’s fresh in people’s minds. This also effects the homeowners insurance market, which is a previously mentioned problem.

Reduced demand from those outside the USA - Many of these folks appear to be disenchanted and generally pi$$ed off with the USA these days.

Mortgage rates no longer at rock bottom like they were for many years - I suppose this is a deterrent to the segment of buyers not paying cash for their homes.

Just some random thoughts.

I would say your "random thoughts" pretty well nailed it.

Boomer

[Normal]

Spare cash may be the real problem soon enough. A Market Crash isn’t welcome by any of us. Most don’t NEED a house in the Villages. Security and safe harbor come first.

[mraines]

Originally Posted by AMB444

Ok, all you smart people of TOTV.

I keep hearing from various sources that the real estate inventory is high right now and many properties are available.

What's your best guess or opinion on why this might be?

Thanks again for your responses!

It's impressive how much knowledge TOTV members have, so I do appreciate you all sharing your thoughts.

Possibly because the developer is building too many homes and many are becoming disappointed with the Villages. Canadians may be selling their homes.