[Windguy]

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.

[biker1]

This far out, you are better off looking at the probabilities from the NHC instead of a deterministic value. See link below.

TROPICAL STORM MILTON

Originally Posted by Windguy

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.

[ChicagoNative]

We moved here from St. Pete in 2018 due to “hurricane fatigue”. (Ironically enough, Irma was the last straw for us, and she was the one who changed course at the last minute and came through here). Even though we were still snowbirds back then and not here for all the storms, it was nerve wracking. We were lucky that in all those years we only had a few roof shingles fly off and a few palm trees down, but Helene hit our old neighborhood with flood waters taking several cars and golf carts among other damage.

Helene showed that even inland can be affected, but I just don’t worry about hurricanes here. We will make sure we’re stocked up on food, wine, and propane for the grill in case of a power outage, but for the most part, by the time hurricanes get here, it’s just a stormy day. Being aware and cautious is one thing; totally freaking out is another.

[coconutmama]

Originally Posted by JGibson

Arizona is looking better and better.

Water shortages in some places in AZ.

Everywhere has it’s pluses and minuses

[Windguy]

Originally Posted by biker1

This far out, you are better off looking at the probabilities from the NHC instead of a deterministic value.

Weather Underground predicted similar numbers for Helene and they were pretty close. And, no, those numbers are not deterministic. Weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic.

[biker1]

Regarding Helene, that was then and this is now. A specific number at a specific time is deterministic. Computer models, from which forecasts are generated, produce deterministic solutions. There is a fair amount of post processing of the deterministic solutions, as well as ensemble runs, from which probability distributions are generated but the actual values of the state variables in the models at specific times are available. My suggestion was to look at the probability distributions from the hurricane folks this far out. Specifically, we currently have a 30-40% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 39 mph, a 10-20% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 58 mph, and a 5-10% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 74 mph during the duration of the event.

Originally Posted by Windguy

Weather Underground predicted similar numbers for Helene and they were pretty close. And, no, those numbers are not deterministic. Weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic.

[JGibson]

Originally Posted by Taltarzac725

They do have flash floods on occasion.

I lived in Phoenix for 5 years and never seen a flash flood.

Arizona has much better weather than Florida.

[retiredguy123]

Question: If a hurricane develops and causes damage in other areas but, when it arrives in The Villages, the sustained winds are only about 40 or 50 mph, does that mean that The Villages did NOT experience a hurricane? If so, has The Viillages ever experienced a hurricane? As I understand it, wind gusts do not count, only "sustained" winds. And, tornadoes do not count. I have heard a lot of people talk about hurricanes they experienced in The Villages, but when I have looked at the historical data, I have never found a time when The Villages ever experienced "sustained" hurricane wind speeds of 74 mph or greater.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Question: If a hurricane develops and causes damage in other areas but, when it arrives in The Villages, the sustained winds are only about 40 or 50 mph, does that mean that The Villages did NOT experience a hurricane? If so, has The Viillages ever experienced a hurricane? As I understand it, wind gusts do not count, only "sustained" winds. And, tornadoes do not count. I have heard a lot of people talk about hurricanes they experienced in The Villages, but when I have looked at the historical data, I have never found a time when The Villages ever experienced "sustained" hurricane wind speeds of 74 mph or greater.

I imagine the answer depends on context.

If you are questioning your insurance company about your deductible then you were in a hurricane.

If you are talking to someone whose roof blew off when <storm name here> came ashore then you were not "in" a hurricane.

I expect my phrase will be, "When hurricane Milton came over the Villages....."

[Spartan86]

Two great tools:

Windy.com - select and view the various forecast models. Zoom into street view, drop a pin on your house, zoom back out and run model. It defaults to steady state wind, but you can select other parameters like gusts or rainfall intensity.

Tropical Tidbits - great, detailed, non hyped analysis of storms.

[Indy-Guy]

Below is a good report of Milton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56jtfXbIk0c

[Retiredsteve]

Originally Posted by Laker14

I'm no meteorologist but I can't remember a system like this developing in the western Caribbean and moving northeast. It seems to me they usually start off the coast of Africa as "tropical disturbances" and track westward with the trade winds.

Once again I'm glad I was too poor to retire to the Gulf Coast.

I'm starting to wonder if there isn't something to that climate change stuff

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

I imagine the answer depends on context.

If you are questioning your insurance company about your deductible then you were in a hurricane.

If you are talking to someone whose roof blew off when <storm name here> came ashore then you were not "in" a hurricane.

I expect my phrase will be, "When hurricane Milton came over the Villages....."

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

Exactly. That was the reasoning behind my insurance statement.

[MorTech]

Looks like we are going to get a proper hurricane this time.

Go to windy.com and use their hurricane tracker feature.

Windy: Wind map & weather forecast