[margaretmattson]

[QUOTE=Altavia;2337197]About 30% of new home buyers come from north of 44.[/QUOTE)

Very few up here want to give up their extremely low taxes and no bond. Many paid well under $300,000 for their homes. Tax assessment is very low with no city tax for most. Most find it ridiculous to pay more for the same model in the south.

Your 30% seems high. If true, it is not a good scenario. This means Villagers are buying the majority of new homes in the south. Sooner or later, that bubble is going to burst.

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

Many investors are buying in the Eastport area. A large percentage are Villagers. This is creating two different housing markets. Owners with views are trying to push the value over the one million mark. While buyers of the remaining homes are pushing the prices down. Very few want to pay $500,000 for a kissing lanai, a home that needs work, or a home in a bad location. A year ago, Lake Denham and Dabney construction was complete. Nearly 100 of those new homes are sitting empty. Inventory on MLS and VLS is increasing.

It will not surprise me if the Developer is forced to reduce the price of homes in Moultrie Creek. If you are looking for a $500,000 home, waiting may save you 10%- a hefty $50,000. For obvious reasons, it is best to buy LOW in a new neighborhood than High.

But, if you absolutely need a home with a view, good luck! You will have to contend with the lottery and pay full premium price. If your plan is for investment, keep this in mind. The amount of higher-priced homes listed for sale is increasing every day. Competition is fierce. In previous years, there were a few on the market. Now, hundreds.

The housing market is definitely interesting to watch. Some swear Moultrie Creek is selling like hot cakes. I took a drive through the area and saw many have moved in. However, quite a bit are sitting empty on most streets. Reminds me of what happened in Lake Denham and Dabney. When I drove those streets during new build, I saw the same. Is Moultrie and Shady Brook another area that lacks buyer interest? In a few months, we will have the answer.

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by Randall55

The housing market is definitely interesting to watch. Some swear Moultrie Creek is selling like hot cakes. I took a drive through the area and saw many have moved in. However, quite a bit are sitting empty on most streets. Reminds me of what happened in Lake Denham and Dabney. When I drove those streets during new build, I saw the same. Is Moultrie and Shady Brook another area that lacks buyer interest? In a few months, we will have the answer.

But yet the New Villager boards in the sales centers continue to show 70-100 names a week.

[asianthree]

[QUOTE=margaretmattson;2337778]

Originally Posted by Altavia

About 30% of new home buyers come from north of 44.[/QUOTE)

Very few up here want to give up their extremely low taxes and no bond. Many paid well under $300,000 for their homes. Tax assessment is very low with no city tax for most. Most find it ridiculous to pay more for the same model in the south.

Your 30% seems high. If true, it is not a good scenario. This means Villagers are buying the majority of new homes in the south. Sooner or later, that bubble is going to burst.

Every released build lot sold in first five minutes, some lots with the 6 figure premiums of the old days.
Or new village has 43% moving from northern areas of TV. We sold our 15yo home that had a balance of $12,000 on mortgage and bond. Taxes we were $5,682.

We now have a new house, yes a bond that we will never pay off, a beautiful view, and taxes close to our old house. We wanted away from the high traffic, retail, and yes the older residents, that were our parents age, set in their ways,

Now we have high energy neighbors, enjoying every moment, instead of rolling up the sidewalk at 6pm

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by Altavia

But yet the New Villager boards in the sales centers continue to show 70-100 names a week.

You showed a picture of the large amount of closings when this happened in Lake Denham and Dabney. A year later, nearly 100 new homes are still sitting in that area. Hundreds more had to be sold at reduced prices. Could your most recent picture be of those who snagged a reduced price home?

I know what my eyes saw in Moultrie Creek. I am capable of reading over 200 available Moultrie listings on VLS. Lots of empty homes sitting just like Denham and Dabney. No sense in arguing. In a few months, buyers will have their say one way or the other.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by Randall55

You showed a picture of the large amount of closings when this happened in Lake Denham and Dabney. A year later, nearly 100 new homes are still sitting in that area. Hundreds more had to be sold at reduced prices. Could your most recent picture be of those who snagged a reduced price home?

I know what my eyes saw in Moultrie Creek. I am capable of reading over 200 available Moultrie listings on VLS. Lots of empty homes sitting just like Denham and Dabney. No sense in arguing. In a few months, buyers will have their say one way or the other.

Does it really matter where 70-100 people are buying? It just means houses are selling, those less desirable homes on lots, or models that some just don’t like, or kissing of death lanai, have always sat longer in any village.

Since your spouse sold homes would those stats for the last 20 years be available and the percentage of villages that were on the market at the same time? How many homes sold at a discount?

I know there were a fair amount with discounts when we bought in 2010, 2012, 2014. In 2020, 2021 there were few homes that had discounts. Then again there wasn’t 3-5 villages being released within short periods of time.

Since you look for homes to flip, you must have kept stats on market of new and preowned. But I don’t ever remember this many releases in multiple villages as we have in today’s market.

Then again the developers don’t seem to worry about homes, on the market, just seems business as usual. Keeping workers employed, instead of shutting down new building until all homes sell, in existing villages.

Pretty sure the construction guys are happy continuing to support their families

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by asianthree

Does it really matter where 70-100 people are buying? It just means houses are selling, those less desirable homes on lots, or models that some just don’t like, or kissing of death lanai, have always sat longer in any village.

Since your spouse sold homes would those stats for the last 20 years be available and the percentage of villages that were on the market at the same time? How many homes sold at a discount?

I know there were a fair amount with discounts when we bought in 2010, 2012, 2014. In 2020, 2021 there were few homes that had discounts. Then again there wasn’t 3-5 villages being released within short periods of time.

Since you look for homes to flip, you must have kept stats on market of new and preowned. But I don’t ever remember this many releases in multiple villages as we have in today’s market.

Then again the developers don’t seem to worry about homes, on the market, just seems business as usual. Keeping workers employed, instead of shutting down new building until all homes sell, in existing villages.

Pretty sure the construction guys are happy continuing to support their families

My post was simply what I observed during my drive through Moultrie Creek. From what I saw, you are correct. Premium lots have sold out. But, hundreds of homes are empty. Commercial is nonexistent in Middleton, one year after construction of that area began.

Does it matter that many homes are sitting in Moultrie Creek? No commercial? To me, yes it does. My wife and I may be able to snag a new home at a great bargain in a few months. Or, if the Moultrie area remains unsold and without commercial, we will stay out of it completely. You may think a 10% discount is no big deal. For me, it will cover the cost of the upgrades I plan to make.It is enjoyable to have no out of pocket expenses. I am a firm believer in doing your own research and everyone should do what is best for them.

I am not concerned with the Developer's wallet. I am not employed by him and he does not pay my bills. I can not stop what he chooses to do and have absolutely no interest in trying. Nor can I sway ANYONE on what property to purchase or avoid. That insinuation is absurd. If I did have power over people, I would ask each for $1000. Then, I would be a very wealthy man. I am merely keeping a keen eye for what is best for my family.

Yes, my wife and I are stat keepers. We have been watching the housing market while renting for nearly a year. We do not see improvement. In fact, we see the opposite. Prices of homes dropping and inventory GROWING. This scenario is QUITE DIFFERENT than what occurred in previous years. Our strategy is to WAIT and WATCH. We never jump in blindly then hope for the best. We move slowly with a solid plan. YMMV depending on the type of property.

[Dusty_Star]

Originally Posted by Altavia

About 30% of new home buyers come from north of 44.

I was from north of 44, about 1,200 miles north

[kansasr]

Originally Posted by Randall55

You showed a picture of the large amount of closings when this happened in Lake Denham and Dabney. A year later, nearly 100 new homes are still sitting in that area. Hundreds more had to be sold at reduced prices. Could your most recent picture be of those who snagged a reduced price home?

I know what my eyes saw in Moultrie Creek. I am capable of reading over 200 available Moultrie listings on VLS. Lots of empty homes sitting just like Denham and Dabney. No sense in arguing. In a few months, buyers will have their say one way or the other.

Not sure where your eyes are looking but Lake Denham is virtually sold out and Dabney is over 75% sold. What's remaining in Dabney are interior lots in the Enclave and newer lots in the far SE corner.

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by kansasr

Not sure where your eyes are looking but Lake Denham is virtually sold out and Dabney is over 75% sold. What's remaining in Dabney are interior lots in the Enclave and newer lots in the far SE corner.

Yep, still selling at their historical rate of +50 a week.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Altavia

Yep, still selling at their historical rate of +50 a week.

Posting pictures of closings does not show the reality of the housing market. Inventory continues to rise because demand is not meeting supply. Simply put, there are MANY MORE HOMES AVAILABLE THAN PEOPLE BUYING. Homes are sitting IN EVERY VILLAGE including new builds. All one has to do is look at the current listings on VLS and MLS. CURRENTLY OVER 1500 AVAILABLE. Average weekly closings of 50-70 VLS and 35-40 MLS doesn't even put a dent in that number. An equal or more amount of homes are being listed weekly to replace the amount that were sold. Inventory is going nowhere. We are in a buyer's market. Prices of homes are dropping. At this time, it is not wise to pay full asking price even on a new build.

[Fenster]

Originally Posted by Altavia

Google Maps satelite view is your friend.

Hysterical!