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Monday 05/16 expect announcement, Rumors that ATT will merge with Discovery channel and a possible spin off. Will be interesting to see if confirmed and would expect some type of market reaction.
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Appears merger with spin off and dividend cut.
Good news or bad news for holders? Curious of thoughts? |
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Boomer |
"AT&T’s dividend: AT&T CEO John Stankey said on Monday that AT&T plans to “reset” its dividend after the transaction, which sounds like a euphemism for “cut.” The company said in its release on Monday morning that it will target an annual dividend payout ratio of 40% to 43% of free cash flow, which it forecasts as being at least $20 billion in 2022. That means about an annual dividend payment in the low $8 billion range, versus about $15 billion last year for a dividend payout ratio in the high 50%. AT&T investors get a stake in the new media company, but the dividend payment on their AT&T shares will drop by roughly half—from $2.08 per share annually, to some $1.10, based on the most recent available share count."
From: Here Are the Winners and Losers of the AT&T-WarnerMedia-Discovery Mega Deal | Barron's |
So the lesson learned here is not to invest in stocks for the dividend which has a high dividend and a very high debt load. In the early 2010's, there was a big push by investors to force companies to lever up with increased debt with low interest rates to pay out increase dividend payouts and push prices higher.
I heard stories of some of this in action, so the accounting analysis is that the EPS per share is minorly impacted with low rate debt as only the interest on the debt is deductible on the income statement. However, the principle still has to be paid, and that shows up only in the cash flow statements. Well, the investors were just greedy for income or price appreciation as always their primary goal. . . So years later the debt is coming due, the business hasn't kept up as the economy is not growing like it did 20 years ago, and companies are stuck with a heavy debt, income which has been slowing down and interest and dividend payments choking off cash flow for investments. . . . Likewise, as Bloomberg mentioned by one of the analysts, telecom companies requires large cash investment to maintain their services against the competitors, and AT&T is slowly falling behind. One of the sneaky things AT&T did was to limit wifi calling during the day on the service plans about a year ago . . . which then forced phones to switch over to cell calling and people's bills went up tremendously. . . was not great for customer renewals. .. a sign that they needed cash . . . it was temporary, but now they have run out of temporary The issue with individual stocks is specific event and management risk, which can be diversified away with a larger portfolio. . . GE was in the same boat, and two different friends worked there and told me of the revenue manipulation for growth until they reached the limit of revenue legally, went beyond legal, and then the company collapsed in price due to debt and accounting issues . . . now been selling off divisions to pay off debt. . . so with debt there is no free ride, with issuing shares, dilution, the company lives on in its current form. . . grad school case final exam, i picked debt over equity. . lost my good grades during the semester for a lower final grade. . . . will always remember that. . and the pandemic caused more debt than equity issues. . . finance guy |
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Remember GE. Investing in dividend stocks cannot be the set-it-and-forget-it routine. Even utilities are not the safety nets they were once thought to be. Dominion (D) slashed its dividend by 33% in late 2020. Debt did in D’s dividend, too. I have concerns right now about the national real estate market. Selling prices are bloated due to low inventory and bidding wars — and also due to a bigger-than-usual emotional component in this one. Retirees who want to downsize but want to stay in their natural habitat, instead of moving far from home, are fighting it out with the first-time buyers, bidding smaller home prices up, up, up. The real estate market has a way of growing arms and legs reaching into the overall economy. The current national RE market better breathe — before it creates a false sense of wealth tied to home equity that turns out to be phantom equity. (Will homeowners beware of banks bearing HELOCs?) We are a nation of amnesiacs. Cassandra Boomer |
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I can see the future. You can bet they will be sued. The CEO cannot claim he was not aware of the pending deal when he said the dividend was secure. If, you have not been involved in any of these suits, the attorneys will make tons of money, you will not get a dime. I sold all of mine. As of today 5/25/21 it is below what I got for mine. |
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There are terms for people who mooch a meal. None are polite or meant to flatter. |
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We all know stocks only go up, real estate only goes up EXCEPT WHEN THEY DON'T. |
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