[Altavia]

Villages real estate
market update
first quarter 2024

[Mleeja]

I have been waiting for this to be published. It is not full of good news. 48 days on the market average!

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Mleeja

I have been waiting for this to be published. It is not full of good news. 48 days on the market average!

The economy is hitting a tough spot for the Villages and the country. 55% of home purchases here are financed. The economy influences buying here and everywhere.

Credit card delinquency rates are at an all time high as reported by the Fed this week. Interest rates are starting to surge. Buckle up if you thought the inflation machine was tamed. Reports show there may be one, yes one rate cut in 2024.

As far as The Villages Sun and their advertisements with these numbers,
STATISTICS 101 and Measures of Central Tendency
Skewed perceptions for manipulation of an audience can occur when a presentation only focuses on one of three categories while ignoring the others in the subsets known as Mean, Median and Mode. Here averages or the “mean”seem to highlight the misleading propaganda. Many, many homes were sold at the MODE of reduced prices and huge concessions.

All is fun in rainbow sprinkled unicorn land.

[Altavia]

Yep - $300 million in new home sales in Q1 (sans Middleton) - so 1-2 billion in new home sales this year is likely -- the sky is falling...

Danby is not an easy sell. South of Eastport move quickly.

Richmond and Villages north of Eastport are eagerly anticipated by buyers

[vintageogauge]

Selling about 17 homes a day combined new & used, that's pretty good and probably better than any other community in the country, add to that however many MLS homes were sold during the first quarter and it's impressive. Also, 45 days on the market I don't see as a very long time. Some homes are selling within a couple weeks so there must be some that are way overpriced or bad locations that just aren't selling.

[MrChip72]

Originally Posted by vintageogauge

Selling about 17 homes a day combined new & used, that's pretty good and probably better than any other community in the country, add to that however many MLS homes were sold during the first quarter and it's impressive. Also, 45 days on the market I don't see as a very long time. Some homes are selling within a couple weeks so there must be some that are way overpriced or bad locations that just aren't selling.

The numbers really don't look "bad". I would be interested to see how they compare to numbers in the rest of Sumter county.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Altavia

Yep - $300 million in new home sales in Q1 (sans Middleton) - so 1-2 billion in new home sales this year is likely -- the sky is falling...

Danby is not an easy sell. South of Eastport move quickly.

Richmond and Villages north of Eastport are eagerly anticipated by buyers

What the Developer earns has NOTHING to do with homebuyers and residents. His money is his to keep. Reducing homes prices in Denham and Dabney to sell them quickly hurts those who want to sell their preowned homes. For some, the sky is falling! In order to sell, many homeowners must reduce their asking price significantly.I am so glad you are happy the Developer is making money. But, have you tried to sell your home? Maybe your outlook will change when your wallet is involved. I am pretty sure those who bought in Lake Denham and Dabney aren't thrilled their neighbors paid $50,000 less for the same model home.

Average time on market is not a good indicator. Some homeowners are lucky to sell their home in a few days or weeks. Others have their homes sitting on the market much longer. You can't lump sales together and state "everything is great." Not to mention, there is NEVER a quarterly report that shows how many preowned homes did not sell within the contract time and were removed from the listings. Did those homes vanish? This report is an old marketing technique to sku your numbers so you look good. It in NO WAY tells the complete story.

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

What the Developer earns has NOTHING to do with homebuyers and residents. His money is his to keep. Reducing homes prices in Denham and Dabney to sell them quickly hurts those who want to sell their preowned homes. For some, the sky is falling! In order to sell, many homeowners must reduce their asking price significantly.I am so glad you are happy the Developer is making money. But, have you tried to sell your home? Maybe your outlook will change when your wallet is involved.

I am pretty sure those who bought in Lake Denham and Dabney aren't thrilled their neighbors paid $50,000 less for the same model home.

What the Developer DOES has EVERYTHING to do with homebuyers and residents of the surrounding counties.

I'm happy 20,000 employee's are gainfully employed and new jobs are being created

I'm happy suppliers and contractors have a continuing stream of income.

I'm happy the Sumter/Lake county tax base increased 100 million a month.

I'm happy expansion continues and streams of creative new amenities are in progress.

I'm happy homes around me increased 50-100% in sell price in three years.

And history show the majority who purchased here will be able to recover their purchase price and more at time of sale.

[twoplanekid]

From the sales of the last three years.

2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029

They might do 4x721 = 2,884 or close to 3,000 for new home sales this year

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Altavia

What the Developer DOES has EVERYTHING to do with homebuyers and residents of the surrounding counties.

I'm happy 20,000 employee's are gainfully employed and new jobs are being created

I'm happy suppliers and contractors have a continuing stream of income.

I'm happy the Sumter/Lake county tax base increased 100 million a month.

I'm happy expansion continues and streams of creative new amenities are in progress.

I'm happy homes around me increased 50-100% in sell price in three years.

And history show the majority who purchased here will be able to recover their purchase price and more at time of sale.

You have no idea of the true history of sales because it is NEVER reported. You are going on what you heard from the grapevine. It would be great to see ACTUAL numbers but that will never happen.

I have been here since it was only Spanish Springs. You see progress as great but I can take or leave it. Same cookie cutters homes again and again and again. The model I bought 20 years ago is still built today. I would enjoy seeing something different. Many would argue that the Villages was much better when it was smaller. Outsiders are not happy their hometown has seen a population explosion. I can go on...

My point is this. There is no sense in posting a quarterly report that only shows what the Developer wants you to know. We live in a beautiful community but like anywhere else, it has its problems. IMO, pretending everything is ALWAYS GREAT is not beneficial. Only the Developer profits from that type of behavior. I would rather see the bad as well as the good. This way, I can make informed decisions. I find it is always better to make my kool aid than drink what is served.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

What the Developer earns has NOTHING to do with homebuyers and residents. His money is his to keep. Reducing homes prices in Denham and Dabney to sell them quickly hurts those who want to sell their preowned homes. For some, the sky is falling! In order to sell, many homeowners must reduce their asking price significantly.I am so glad you are happy the Developer is making money. But, have you tried to sell your home? Maybe your outlook will change when your wallet is involved. I am pretty sure those who bought in Lake Denham and Dabney aren't thrilled their neighbors paid $50,000 less for the same model home.

Average time on market is not a good indicator. Some homeowners are lucky to sell their home in a few days or weeks. Others have their homes sitting on the market much longer. You can't lump sales together and state "everything is great." Not to mention, there is NEVER a quarterly report that shows how many preowned homes did not sell within the contract time and were removed from the listings. Did those homes vanish? This report is an old marketing technique to sku your numbers so you look good. It in NO WAY tells the complete story.

IMHO there are still many overpriced resales. For a homeowner to expect to double their money in five or less years is now totally unrealistic. Those in TV who purchased their home when rates were 3% are not about to trade that for a 6% interest rate. There are still cash buyers who may be waiting for further price drops. In the past, many new homes were purchased by current homeowners. I have not seen a 50k reduction on a new home by the Developer.

We had friends who recently looked at a new designer home with a 48,000 bond. The bond was a deal breaker for them. I understand their thinking. Overall, given the current economy and higher interest rates, I would rate the Developer’s first quarter results as above average.

[twoplanekid]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson;2323511[U

You have no idea of the true history of sales because it is NEVER reported[/U]. You are going on what you heard from the grapevine. It would be great to see ACTUAL numbers but that will never happen.

I have been here since it was only Spanish Springs. You see progress as great but I can take or leave it. Same cookie cutters homes again and again and again. The model I bought 20 years ago is still built today. I would enjoy seeing something different. Many would argue that the Villages was much better when it was smaller. Outsiders are not happy their hometown has seen a population explosion. I can go on...

My point is this. There is no sense in posting a quarterly report that only shows what the Developer wants you to know. We live in a beautiful community but like anywhere else, it has its problems. IMO, pretending everything is ALWAYS GREAT is not beneficial. Only the Developer profits from that type of behavior. I would rather see the bad as well as the good. This way, I can make informed decisions. I find it is always better to make my kool aid than drink what is served.

These are the actual numbers that have been reported for new home sales over the years.

Year Homes Sold (Home and Lot) Average Sale Price
1986 511 *
1987 543 *
1988 517 *
1989 542 $ 74,000
1990 502 79,000
1991 430 81,000
1992 562 87,000
1993 567 93,000
1994 686 98,000
1995 700 106,000
1996 753 115,000
1997 1,054 119,000
1998 1,321 129,000
1999 1,544 139,000
2000 1,776 151,000
2001 2,074 156,000
2002 2,260 163,000
2003 3,329 168,000
2004 3,955 204,000
2005 4,263 232,000
2006 3,935 257,000
2007 2,403 251,000
2008 2,236 231,000
2009 2,115 229,000
2010 2,208 231,000
2011 2,307 241,000
2012 2,850 244,000
2013 3,419 271,000
2014 2,601 304,000
2015 2,294 304,000
2016 1,966
2017 2,231
2018 2,134 281,000
2019 2,429 307,000
2020 2,452
2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029 410,000

Note: the numbers from the beginning thru 2015 came from page 43 of the SLCDD 9/10/2015 Agenda PDF
The information appearing herein regarding The Villages and the Developer has been furnished by the Developer.
All other data was gathered from published reports in the Daily Sun

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by justjim

IMHO there are still many overpriced resales. For a homeowner to expect to double their money in five or less years is now totally unrealistic. Those in TV who purchased their home when rates were 3% are not about to trade that for a 6% interest rate. There are still cash buyers who may be waiting for further price drops. In the past, many new homes were purchased by current homeowners. I have not seen a 50k reduction on a new home by the Developer.

We had friends who recently looked at a new designer home with a 48,000 bond. The bond was a deal breaker for them. I understand their thinking. Overall, given the current economy and higher interest rates, I would rate the Developer’s first quarter results as above average.

Agree with most of what you said. However, some homes in Lake Denham and Dabney were indeed reduced by $50,000. My daughter looked at one because the price intrigued her. The sales rep told her the developer was eager to unload the inventory.She did not purchase because she felt the prices may go lower. She did not want to live in an area where she paid more for a home than neighbors.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by twoplanekid

These are the actual numbers that have been reported for new home sales over the years.

Year Homes Sold (Home and Lot) Average Sale Price
1986 511 *
1987 543 *
1988 517 *
1989 542 $ 74,000
1990 502 79,000
1991 430 81,000
1992 562 87,000
1993 567 93,000
1994 686 98,000
1995 700 106,000
1996 753 115,000
1997 1,054 119,000
1998 1,321 129,000
1999 1,544 139,000
2000 1,776 151,000
2001 2,074 156,000
2002 2,260 163,000
2003 3,329 168,000
2004 3,955 204,000
2005 4,263 232,000
2006 3,935 257,000
2007 2,403 251,000
2008 2,236 231,000
2009 2,115 229,000
2010 2,208 231,000
2011 2,307 241,000
2012 2,850 244,000
2013 3,419 271,000
2014 2,601 304,000
2015 2,294 304,000
2016 1,966
2017 2,231
2018 2,134 281,000
2019 2,429 307,000
2020 2,452
2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029 410,000

Note: the numbers from the beginning thru 2015 came from page 43 of the SLCDD 9/10/2015 Agenda PDF
The information appearing herein regarding The Villages and the Developer has been furnished by the Developer.
All other data was gathered from published reports in the Daily Sun

Those are simply numbers sold. It does not provide information on how many homes were sold at a discount rate. Have you gone on VLS? When a new home is pending, the price the home was sold is immediately removed. No further information is given. If you look at their preowned listings, time on the market is never given. VLS is very secretive.

The minute you buy a home, you now live in a preowned home. My daughter is currently looking for a home. The sales history of MANY homes has given us a truer picture of the market. This information is not lining up with "everyone makes money when they sell" stories. A real eye opener!

[vintageogauge]

[QUOTE=margaretmattson;2323518]Those are simply numbers sold. It does not provide information on how many homes were sold at a discount rate. Have you gone on VLS? When a new home is pending, the price the home was sold is immediately removed. No further information is given. If you look at their preowned listings, time on the market is never given. VLS is very secretive.

The minute you buy a home, you now live in a preowned home. My daughter is currently looking for a home. The sales history of MANY homes has given us a truer picture of the market. This information is not lining up with "everyone makes money when they sell" stories. A real eye opener![/QUOT


This is the only place that new homes are cheaper than re-sales. From personal experience, 70% over cost after 3 years is to be expected.